LED industry: short-term backrest light pulls general lighting to dominate the future

In this report, we will make a detailed analysis of the future needs of the main terminal application areas of high-brightness LED granules, and make predictions and judgments on the supply and demand pattern of the LED industry in the next two years; sooner or later, supply and demand will be in short supply. After turning to the conclusion of oversupply, at the same time try to give some ideas to judge "what kind of enterprises can win in the fierce competition in the future".

market capacity

In the next five years, the demand for high-brightness LED granules will continue to grow at a high speed, and its market capacity will rapidly expand from 28.9 billion yuan in 2009 to 100 billion yuan in 2013, and further reach 130 billion yuan in 2015, a compound of 6 years. The growth rate reached 28.5%. Short-term demand to see LCD backlight: 3 to 5 years, the high-speed growth of high-brightness LED particle demand will be driven by the rapid penetration of LED backlighting applications, especially the demand for LED particles in Taiwan LCD TVs are the biggest driving force.

Medium and long term demand for general lighting

Public lighting such as urban lighting and street lights will be the first to be LEDized, and the decline in the cost of LED bulbs and lamps will largely determine their penetration in the larger potential market for commercial and household use, in addition to government policies. And the intensity of subsidies will also affect the market space of LED in the field of general lighting to a certain extent.

The industry believes that the emergence of high-brightness LED granules will be an inevitable trend in the development of the industry, but subject to the actual production progress of MOCVD equipment and the continued shortage of sapphire substrates, the timing of supply and demand reversal may be It will not arrive until the third quarter of 2011, later than the end of 2010 as considered by the market.

When the supply and demand situation of high-brightness LED particles deteriorates, the price war will be inevitable, and the current high corporate profit margin will be greatly reduced. The industry believes that those industries have a complete vertical integration and have core technological advantages. Or the “market segment leader” with obvious scale advantage will be the most likely to win in the fierce market competition in the future.

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